The EU Recovery Instrument and the Constitutional Implications of its Expenditure

2021–2027 Recovery Plan for Europe and its Recovery and Resilience Facility have altered elements of the EU institutional equilibrium – constitutional consistency of the ensuing design – implications for the constitutional evolution of the EU – analysis of the expenditure of the Recovery and Resilience Facility – new fiscal economic stabilisation function – conditionality attached to the funds – strengthened role of the Council – nuanced multi-level financial governance – the fiscal stabilisation function enshrines a potential form of constitutional mutation – the new institutional framework for the expenditure of the EU funds seems to lean towards an intergovernmental preeminence [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of European Constitutional Law Review is the property of Cambridge University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Fundamentals vs. Financialization during Extreme Events: From Backwardation to Contango. A Copper Market Analysis during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has shocked commodities markets in general and base metals markets in particular. The market turmoil made it very difficult to act in the physical market, given the impossibility of establishing or maintaining physical and/or financial positions in a context of high uncertainty. This has happened both in different moments of the development of the pandemic and in geographically different frames. That is why this contribution tries to explain the evolution of warehouses and copper price structure and its utility for hedging in the context of an extreme event. To that end, Granger causality has been used to test whether, during the COVID-19 first wave, the pandemic evolution is cointegrated on one hand with copper futures price structure and, on the other, with the incremental levels of copper stocks. Using 102 official copper prices on London Metal Exchange (LME) trading days, between 13 January 2020 and 5 June 2020 (once the most severe effects of the first wave had been overcome), it was demonstrated that, during the first COVID-19 wave in Europe, the weekly death index variation was cointegrated with the copper future price structure. It has been proven that, in this timelapse, contango in futures price structure has increased its value, and the incremental levels of stock in copper LME warehouses are linked with a stable contango structure. In short, we find that fundamental market effects predominate, in a context in which commodities used to be more financialized. This leads market players, such as traders, miners, and transformers, to move exposures in their hedging structures, under such extreme event situations, in favor of or against either contango or backwardation, so as to derive value from them.

Origin of imported SARS-CoV-2 strains in The Gambia identified from whole genome sequences.

The SARS-CoV-2 disease, first detected in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 has become a global pandemic and is causing an unprecedented burden on health care systems and the economy globally. While the travel history of index cases may suggest the origin of infection, phylogenetic analysis of isolated strains from these cases and contacts will increase the understanding and link between local transmission and other global populations. The objective of this analysis was to provide genomic data on the first six cases of SARS-CoV-2 in The Gambia and to determine the source of infection. This ultimately provide baseline data for subsequent local transmission and contribute genomic diversity information towards local and global data. Our analysis has shown that the SARS-CoV-2 virus identified in The Gambia are of European and Asian origin and sequenced data matched patients' travel history. In addition, we were able to show that two COVID-19 positive cases travelling in the same flight had different strains of SARS-CoV-2. Although whole genome sequencing (WGS) data is still limited in sub-Saharan Africa, this approach has proven to be a highly sensitive, specific and confirmatory tool for SARS-CoV-2 detection.

Intense and Mild First Epidemic Wave of Coronavirus Disease, The Gambia.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is evolving differently in Africa than in other regions. Africa has lower SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates and milder clinical manifestations. Detailed SARS-CoV-2 epidemiologic data are needed in Africa. We used publicly available data to calculate SARS-CoV-2 infections per 1,000 persons in The Gambia. We evaluated transmission rates among 1,366 employees of the Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia (MRCG), where systematic surveillance of symptomatic cases and contact tracing were implemented. By September 30, 2020, The Gambia had identified 3,579 SARS-CoV-2 cases, including 115 deaths; 67% of cases were identified in August. Among infections, MRCG staff accounted for 191 cases; all were asymptomatic or mild. The cumulative incidence rate among nonclinical MRCG staff was 124 infections/1,000 persons, which is >80-fold higher than estimates of diagnosed cases among the population. Systematic surveillance and seroepidemiologic surveys are needed to clarify the extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Africa.

Upper Respiratory Tract Co-detection of Human Endemic Coronaviruses and High-density Pneumococcus Associated With Increased Severity Among HIV-Uninfected Children Under 5 Years Old in the PERCH Study.

BACKGROUND: Severity of viral respiratory illnesses can be increased with bacterial coinfection and can vary by sex, but influence of coinfection and sex on human endemic coronavirus (CoV) species, which generally cause mild to moderate respiratory illness, is unknown. We evaluated CoV and pneumococcal co-detection by sex in childhood pneumonia. METHODS: In the 2011-2014 Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study, nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (NP/OP) swabs and other samples were collected from 3981 children <5 years hospitalized with severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 countries. Severity by NP/OP detection status of CoV (NL63, 229E, OC43 or HKU1) and high-density (≥6.9 log10 copies/mL) pneumococcus (HDSpn) by real-time polymerase chain reaction was assessed by sex using logistic regression adjusted for age and site. RESULTS: There were 43 (1.1%) CoV+/HDSpn+, 247 CoV+/HDSpn-, 449 CoV-/HDSpn+ and 3149 CoV-/HDSpn- cases with no significant difference in co-detection frequency by sex (range 51.2%-64.0% male, P = 0.06). More CoV+/HDSpn+ pneumonia was very severe compared with other groups for both males (13/22, 59.1% versus range 29.1%-34.7%, P = 0.04) and females (10/21, 47.6% versus 32.5%-43.5%, P = 0.009), but only male CoV+/HDSpn+ required supplemental oxygen more frequently (45.0% versus 20.6%-28.6%, P < 0.001) and had higher mortality (35.0% versus 5.3%-7.1%, P = 0.004) than other groups. For females with CoV+/HDSpn+, supplemental oxygen was 25.0% versus 24.8%-33.3% (P = 0.58) and mortality was 10.0% versus 9.2%-12.9% (P = 0.69). CONCLUSIONS: Co-detection of endemic CoV and HDSpn was rare in children hospitalized with pneumonia, but associated with higher severity and mortality in males. Findings may warrant investigation of differences in severity by sex with co-detection of HDSpn and SARS-CoV-2.